| Team | Games Played | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|
Step 1 — Full Match Stats: Enter both team names, the number of games played (last 6–15 recommended), total goals scored and goals conceded for that period.
Step 2 — 1st Half Stats (Optional): Tap the [+ 1st Half Stats] button to reveal the half-time inputs. Enter goals scored & conceded in the 1st half only. 2nd half values are automatically calculated as Full Time minus 1st Half — no extra entry needed.
Step 3 — League Averages: By default, Home avg = 1.50 and Away avg = 1.20 goals/match. Toggle Advanced if you want to override these for a specific league (e.g. EPL, Serie A).
Step 4 — Calculate: Hit ⚡ Calculate Predictions. Your most likely score, confidence meter, and all market probabilities will be generated across all tabs.
Step 5 — EV Finder: Navigate to the EV Finder tab and enter bookmaker odds to instantly identify positive expected value (+EV) bets.
New Match: Press the subtle ⊕ NEW button above the team statistics table to clear all fields and start fresh.
Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.
Enter team data on the Inputs tab and press Calculate.
Calculate predictions first, then enter bookmaker odds to find value bets.
Model fix — pure Dixon-Coles: The previous version applied both a Bivariate Poisson covariance (ρ) and Dixon-Coles τ correction simultaneously, causing mild double-counting on low-score probabilities (0–0, 1–0, 0–1, 1–1). v2.0 uses pure Dixon-Coles only — ρ is set to 0 and τ handles all low-score correction. Probability outputs are now cleaner and better calibrated.
Home/Away symmetry: The separate home advantage (1.2×) and away disadvantage (0.87×) multipliers have been removed. Asymmetry is already correctly encoded by the league average goals (lgH vs lgA). Adding extra multipliers was double-counting home advantage.
NaN safety: Inputs with zero goals no longer silently corrupt the probability matrix. A clear validation message is shown instead.
Markets simplified: Double Chance and Asian Handicap markets removed from Results and EV Finder tabs to keep focus on the core 1X2, O/U, and BTTS signals.
Visual: Lime green accent replaced with Glacier Blue (#60b4f0) — easier on the eyes for extended sessions. ScoreMatrix glitch-title effect added to header.